Betting on the Bull or the Bear? (Forbes)


KSU professor gives upbeat assessment of economic conditions

KENNESAW, Ga. (Jan 16, 2017) — The 2008 recession officially ended in June 2009. Yet over seven years later, people still ask, “When we will get back to normal?” In the 2016 elections, both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders focused on the “low-growth economy” and how to get America back to a robust growth pattern.

Professor Roger Tutterow, of the Econometric Center, Coles College of Business, at Kennesaw State University, had an interesting perspective. He delivered a fairly upbeat assessment of overall economic conditions, along with the normal caveats.

For those who will say in June 2017, “we are eight years into an expansion, we must be due for a recession,” Tutterow notes that recessions are not based on a clock. From 1945 to 2009, the economy went through 11 cycles with the average contraction 11.1 months and the average expansion 58.4 months.

Looking at the U.S. stock market run-up after the Trump victory, the professor advised, “Don’t confuse the stock market with recession risk,” which he sees as a bit higher compared to two years ago. If we get a recession in 2017 or 2018, strategies should be in place that would allow you to buy stock during dips, or if retired, have sufficient reserves to preclude selling stocks at market lows.

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