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Experts try to make sense of gap between polls and vote in Georgia

Posted: 4:59 p.m. Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2014 By Nancy Badertscher and Shannon McCaffrey…

Georgia (Nov 6, 2014) — Posted: 4:59 p.m. Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2014

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http://www.myajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/experts-try-to-make-sense-of-gap-between-polls-and/nh2C3/#bd2e5a0c.3548139.735543

By Nancy Badertscher and Shannon McCaffrey - The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

There was one thing most polls seemed to agree on in the weeks leading up to Tuesday’s election — the two top races in Georgia were so excruciatingly close that both might have to be decided by runoffs.

But then the voters stepped in. Republicans won in a rout. It wasn’t a horse race — it was a political blowout.

There was one thing most polls seemed to agree on in the weeks leading up to Tuesday’s election — the two top races in Georgia were so excruciatingly close that both might have to be decided by runoffs.

But then the voters stepped in. Republicans won in a rout. It wasn’t a horse race — it was a political blowout.

Meanwhile, some earlier surveys were simply imprecise. They relied on automated calling and Internet surveys, cheaper methods scorned by more established pollsters.

“We have major polling problems (in Georgia),” said Kerwin Swint, chairman of the political science department at Kennesaw State University.

“No one here knows how to model turnout based on voting patterns, population, and issues.” …

 

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